Dealing with Chaos
No project plan survives first contact with reality. When the unexpected happens, it’s time to step back, take in the bigger picture, and truly understand the nature of the issue at hand.
Chaos often gets a bad reputation. It creates cognitive strain, disrupts our expectations, and throws surprises our way. However, the biggest mistake we can make during chaos is to cling to standard methods and try to force the project "back on track."
Instead, chaos offers us a chance to gain deeper insights into the system we're operating in. If we adapt and respond wisely, we can leverage this unpredictability for better outcomes. If we resist and try to impose rigid control, we risk missing out on valuable lessons and progress.
Why Preparation Doesn’t Help in Chaos
David Snowden’s Cynefin framework describes chaotic situations as those where there are no predictable patterns and we can’t rely on testing to provide confidence in the plan or outcomes.
New product launches can be chaotic – Ford Edsel, New Coke, Crystal Pepsi, and Colgate frozen dinners (that was actually a thing!) all tested well but flopped in the market. Elections fall into this category too – polls might suggest one outcome, but voters are often surprised on election day. Similarly, business transformations can be chaotic; even with staff assurances, pushback can emerge unexpectedly once a program is underway.
I worked on a major transformation project involving extensive union consultations. Despite careful planning and discussions with local delegates, one union extended the process, dragging out what was meant to be six meetings into more than a dozen, often lasting all day instead of just a couple of hours. The project manager struggled to cope with the constant rework needed after each meeting.
This is what Chaos looks like. Despite testing the waters, it is full of surprises and can leave you feeling let down when things don’t go as planned.
A New Approach to Operating in Chaos
Transformations are bound to encounter setbacks. Sticking to a project plan amid chaos only causes stress and frustration. Instead, our approach needs to adapt to match the emerging realities.
In these moments, we should shift our mindset from control to learning. Instead of asking, "How do we get back on track?" ask, "What am I missing?"
Rather than trying to regain control, embrace the issues as signals of what you might be missing. Operating at the edge of the unknown helps us better understand the system in focus. If you rely on rigid playbooks, your project will fail faster than Cheetos-flavoured lip balm.
How to Deal with Chaos
Chaos stems from unmet expectations. If you’re constantly surprised and your plans keep shifting, it could be a sign that you’re in a chaotic situation.
The first step is to recognise and accept that control is an illusion. Let go of the belief that you can impose order on the chaos.
The second step is to identify the source of the unpredictability: Is it driven by external factors, or is it due to internal misalignment and constraints? Then, adapt your operating model to fit the context—focus on taking action, sense what happens and respond to the emerging patterns. Each surprise is an opportunity; ask yourself, "What is this teaching to me?"
Don’t resist the chaos. Embrace it, navigate through it swiftly, and learn from it. Act quickly to learn and move through the turbulence. Your ability to adapt will drive the success of the project.
